A president’s second term is referred to as ‘lame duck’. It’s when so much is hoped for, but less achieved.
Not in the case of the 47th president. The next four years need to be regarded as Donald Trump’s first term. His earlier one was the warm-up so that he could figure out how to exercise the levers of power. After his convincing victory, including the popular vote – much to the chagrin of Democrats – Trump has a firm grip on these levers, the Project 2025 playbook to guide him, and the acolytes to implement his orders, including the newly influential America First Policy Institute (AFPI) . Maybe it’d been better had he been lame duck in 2020. Monied America is now in charge, the poor hoping that this new regime will help them. The Dow soared, especially private prisons.
Heritage Foundation presenting Project 2025 at RNC convention fringe meeting, Milwaukee WI
I’ve been on my road trip to rediscover America off and on for over two years, and this result was no surprise. I was told by black men that they were better off under Trump and that the Democrats took their vote for granted. They felt disrespected. Obama’s petulant comments didn’t help. Latino supporters I met at the RNC convention in Milwaukee didn’t regard themselves as immigrants, and felt Dems were too woke, while Trump was good for their small businesses. Insults against Puerto Rico were incidental.
African-American voter in queue for Trump rally at Madison Square Garden, NYC
Latino Trump voters at RNC convention, Milwaukee WI
The seeds of this Democratic vanquishing were sown back in 2021. Immigration and the economy were like two icebergs that the Dem’s ship ploughed into, ripping open both sides of the hull below the waterline.
Obama’s approach to immigration had been both security and compassion. Trump was all about security. Biden was all about compassion, pulled to the left by the endorsement of progressives whose boycott of Hillary Clinton contributed to her defeat. It was a chart showing the surge in immigration under Biden that Trump was displaying when he was shot. Many voters told me that they were ok with legal immigration, but not ‘illegals’. The false allegation of immigrants eating cats and dogs in Springfield, Ohio merely confirmed their worst fears of rape and pillage.
Trump’s chart of illegal immigration under Biden, MSG rally, NYC
While the US economy was hailed by The Economist as the “envy of the world”, many voters didn’t feel this in their pocketbook. I was told over and over again that they were better off four years ago. The Democrat’s feckless spending was blamed by Trump for inflation that reached 9.1%, irrespective of economists placing much of the blame at the door of Covid. Voters compared the price of eggs and gas under Trump and Biden, and the administration’s assertion that real wages outpaced inflation fell on deaf ears. Trump will inherit a booming economy, but his policies on tariffs and deportation threaten to trash it.
Underpinning these issues were cultural ones. Men playing women’s sports. Surgery for trans prisoners. Pronouns. Forgiving student loans. Trump’s adverts relentlessly drove home these issues. It didn’t help that Kamala Harris had embraced a progressive agenda in her failed 2020 campaign, so she was easily hoisted on her own petard. When she took new positions, she was accused of flip-flopping. She couldn’t differentiate herself from Biden, as Hubert Humphrey couldn’t from LBJ in 1968. There was no way Harris could win this argument.
I set out to learn about both campaigns, observing the RNC convention in Milwaukee and visiting Trump’s campaign offices, while also volunteering for the Dems in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. I attended rallies for Harris and Bernie Sanders, and Trump’s rally in Madison Square Garden (MSG).
Bernie Sanders rabble rousing at rally in Baraboo WI
Kamala Harris entering rally in Eire PA
MSG was an eye-opener. I needed to be in the room to fully appreciate the MAGA movement; ‘cult’ is a word that came to mind. While folks in the queue for the Harris rally could have been your neighbours attending a farm show, the zealotry of Trump’s MAGA supporters was on full display in New York. At 6’4” I felt as if I was standing in a bed of red roses. Caps, t-shirts, buttons, all shouting their membership of MAGA and allegiance to its leader. The German word for leader is führer.
Trump supporter waiting to get into Madison Square Garden
Donald Trump speaking at MSG rally. Brits will recall what happened when Jim fixed it
The crowd moved as one, cheering to the rafters as speaker after speaker demonised immigrants and trumpeted mass deportation, the many Latino supporters enthusiastically joining in. Democrats were accused of being communists and Marxists, while also beholden to Wall Steet and big banks. This ideological contradiction was lost on the 20,000 who filled MSG. Women were told to marry and have kids. There was no mention of abortion, Roe or Dobbs over four hours of speeches. It was not a vote winner.
Woman rousing the crowd waiting to get into MSG
In contrast to the zealotry I experienced among Trump supporters, I found Harris supporters more normal. Their values were more in line with my own, influenced by character of what is expected of a president. Yes, there was passion and optimism which affected their outlook and mine, but this was hope rather than certainty for the outcome for which we campaigned. There was no Trump ground game, so I canvassed for the Dems in Cazenovia, Wisconsin and Allentown and Reading, Pennsylvania, where Elon Musk did his best to buy the election.
Our Harris canvassing base in Birdsboro PA; Patrick from Boston, Eric from CA and host Laura
Harris sign at Laura’s house
The Harris campaign was well organised and financed for GOTV (get out the vote), and we had volunteers from California, Oregon, Maryland, DC, Maine and many other states showing up to canvas. I helped train them in the canvassing app and knocked many doors myself. These volunteers were motivated by a passion to protect American democracy and belief in an equal society under the rule of law. When doors were answered, the conversations were largely inspiring. When there was anger, it was usually white men, not wanting us to speak to women who were registered as Dems.
Canvassing with Chris in Berks County PA
Well resourced campaign with the Harris lit to go out to satellite offices outside Reading PA
While we were good at GOTV, Trump’s campaign used the magic of media to connect with unengaged voters. I listened to Trump chewing the fat for three hours with a sycophantic Joe Rogan. I understood nothing about the wrestlers they discussed, but 18m who follow Rogan on Instagram would have. Harris played it safe, only latterly taking a risk with the media and, even then, missing the ball that had been rolled gently down the crease. Accusing Trump of being a ‘fascist’ meant nothing to voters who had no idea what that meant. His entertainment and dog whistling harked back to the renegade George Wallace campaign in 1968.
The results showed that Harris lost by only 1.6 points in battleground states, but 3.9 points in non-battleground ones. It appears that our effort was not in vain, irrespective of the overall outcome. My head knew what the result would be, but my heart retained optimism. I had hoped that women would turn out in numbers for Dems like in the 2022 midterms. They did, voting on state ballots to protect abortion, then for Donald Trump. The economy and immigration – which was successfully cast as an economic issue by Trump – reigned supreme, values cast aside. Young men, both white and black, had a spell cast over them by the pervasive right wing media.
Queue of voters in Washington DC
I had two days of driving after election night, so plenty of time to listen to podcasts and radio from both the right and left. Conservative commentators laid on heavy doses of schadenfreude, continuing to denigrate Harris’ character, experience, and ability. I thought, why can’t they just lay off? Guess they were getting their own back for the Democratic criticism and ‘political persecution’ of Trump.
Liberals were downcast yet reflective. There was reporting of a Democratic Party blame game post-election, but acknowledgement that Harris did her best with the hand of cards she’d been dealt. She was not the strongest campaigner and, in her initial run for the nomination, didn’t survive the Darwinian primary process. But coming as close in a campaign of 100 days was remarkable. There was much comment on Biden’s Shakespearean ego getting in the way of reality, and then hanging on for a month after his very public debate collapse.
But, overall, there was acceptance that the Dems were out of step with today’s American society, signalled by a failure to get their message across. They lost the brand war. “Make America Great Again” and “America First” are readily understandable, yet malleable, to suit a range of voters. What is now the party of the establishment couldn’t connect with them. The party once again ran on identity and cultural politics rather than pocket book and day-to-day issues. Anecdotal evidence also told me that Americans weren’t ready for a woman, much less a black one. That was two strikes against Harris from the outset.
Conservative media was superb at pushing buttons that shaped perceptions of key segments of voters who turned away from Harris – suburban and city women, young black and white men, unions, the poor. Harris and the Dems couldn’t figure out what to say and how to say it to unengaged voters, relying instead on their 2008 playbook of a multi-racial coalition. Trump’s message – immigration, economy, and culture – and his entertaining way of delivery, made Harris’ ‘save democracy’ message look pedestrian. She may have been a good prosecutor in the Senate, but was an ineffective communicator in the country.
Biden sign amended to Harris after he withdrew, Milwaukee WI
Kamala Harris at rally in Eire PA
Biden’s presidency may well be seen as an aberration in the age of Trumpism. This is not the Republican party, but Trump’s. He captured the party, and now the state too. His 21st century comeback rivals Richard Nixon in the 20th and Grove Cleveland, the other non-consecutive two-term president, in the 19th.
Trump is a consummate politician and supreme showman. He is also a 21st century snake oil salesman and convicted felon. His remedies of mass deportation, protective tariffs, protecting women, Christian nationalism, sacking civil servants for loyalists, retribution against the “enemy within,” ending the war in Ukraine, and Executive Branch authority over Justice and the FBI will find no resistance from a compliant Congress (House pending), supportive Court, and a MAGA base enthralled by strongman power. His model is the illiberal Christian democracy of Hungary’s Victor Orban, but Trump’s approach to exercising power harks back to earlier 20th century European strongmen. Character counted for nought in this election, even though Trump has broken the unwritten standards of how a president behaves. His criminal charges will now wash away like snow off a dyke.
Sign at MSG rally.
The Democrats have a job to do. Biden’s substantive successes of boosting unions, child tax credits, reducing price of insulin, investing in infrastructure, and anti-trust policy were not translated by Harris into benefits for working people. They’d already lost the rural vote, and are now doing their best to lose the city vote. The party faced similar challenges after 12 years of Reagan and Bush, and eight of Bush Jr. Clinton and Obama emerged.
However, the experience of Donald Tusk in Poland shows how hard it is to turn around institutions after only eight years of authoritarian rule. Trump 2.0 and potentially Vance 1.0 will set a high bar for democracy in America. The Dems need to find an answer to the disinformation of Joe Rogan, Fox, the NY Post and Musk’s X. Voters were convinced that Trump will do as he said, and the implications are stark, not just for the US but also the world.
Maybe this is what Americans voted for. I doubt it, but I’ll reflect on this as I complete The Country I Left Behind.
Biden has promised a peaceful transition.
