Campaign of Two Halves

Observing the campaigns of the two parties in Wisconsin for a fortnight in July showed how quickly political fortunes can change.

The first week demonstrated the ascendency of Trumpism and his MAGA movement. The attempted assassination of Donald Trump shortly after I arrived galvanised his supporters, many telling me in Milwaukee that the hand of God had been on his shoulder. Trump entered the Republican convention with not only strength, but near martyrdom. 

The discussion among delegates was of a landslide against a dispirited and fractured Democratic party led by an aging and enfeebled octogenarian who crashed and burned in the presidential debate. The iconic picture of Trump rising from the stage with clenched fist, shouting “fight, fight, fight”, was all his faithful needed to confirm that they owned the future.

This would be a future of economic and Christian nationalism with an America first foreign policy, using a 2025 playbook provided by the Heritage Foundation that would dissemble the federal government, strengthen the executive branch, and politicise the civil service to enact the will of Trump. Ian Kershaw’s phrase, Working Toward the Fuhrer, came to mind as I listened to these plans at the Heritage Foundation fringe meeting.

Protesters were corralled into an area well away from the convention and, though vocal, were fringe to the proceedings. The cheeky anti-Trump Lincoln Project managed to get nearer the boundary of the well-protected convention site with their touring vans prophesying the perils of another Trump term.

The nomination of Senator JD Vance confirmed the Trump-owned party’s confidence in its ascendency. Vance’s adherence to Trumpism demonstrated the zealotry of a convert to the cause, with his rhetoric throwing more red meat to those already committed. Why widen the base of voters when the race has already been won, and Vance is the anointed successor for 2028? 

Delegates told me that Trump will win, and even if Joe Biden claimed to have won, it would have been due to electoral fraud, so Trump will be president for a second term. Done and dusted, might as well call the election now. Nothing like the safety of certainty.

This GOP certainty of success, a 21^st century Triumph of the Will, lasted 15 minutes into Trump’s acceptance speech. He moved then from martyrdom back to grievance and retribution, going off-script of 3,000 words to 13,000. I drifted off, as did delegates, but was jolted awake with the mention of Hannibal Lecter. Don’t usually get that in a convention acceptance speech.

My second week in Wisconsin showed that Democrats had other ideas to MAGA ascendency. After his abysmal performance in the debate, even the dog on the street knew that Biden could not survive the rigours of the campaign, much less govern effectively for four more years. Though he was adamant about running, Nancy Pelosi said that she was waiting for Biden to decide, political code for “That’s the wrong answer, Joe.”

Leaving the alternative universe of MAGAland in Milwaukee, I returned to planet earth and spent time with the Democrat campaign in the small cities and rural communities of Wisconsin. I met Senator Tammy Baldwin running for a 3^rd term and attended her rally in Platteville. I observed Democrat campaigners talking with voters at the La Crosse Interstate Fair, listening and explaining. It was a pleasure to be around sane, grounded people, talking sense for the betterment of America.

Biden’s withdrawal came during the Cazenovia (Pop 318) annual summer celebration, where the whole town was either in the parade or watching it. I joined the Democrats in the parade, handing out leaflets for down-ballot candidates.

I felt as if I was on a different planet. The zealotry of Milwaukee behind me, the two candidates for WI statehouse seats – Julia Hartley and Sarah Keyeski – were novice politicians hoping to benefit from the Wisconsin Supreme Court’s Fair Maps decision which ended Republican gerrymandering.

As I sat munching away on a pulled pork sandwich at the BBQ after the parade, my BBC feed announced Biden’s withdrawal from the race. I showed it to the disbelieving people around me, mainly Republican voters. While this was thought a possibility after the debate, it still came as a shock to them that the Democrats would commit regicide.

Biden’s eloquent speech was delivered ineloquently. Any doubters would had their doubts erased. After this speech, the wind suddenly changed direction and blew hard into the Democratic sails. Only ill-informed pundits talked about an open convention, which would have caused civil war within the party. Kamala Harris – not the best candidate, but the one in the strongest position – within 48 hours became the settled nominee of the party.

I was then back in Milwaukee where Harris was holding her first campaign rally. Gone were the days of 1968 when I walked into rallies for Richard Nixon and Hubert Humphrey in Peoria. This 2024 rally was locked down tight to only ticket-holders, but I managed to get in after Harris left. The podium was empty, but the feeling of euphoria was still hanging over the hall. I put on my press badge and interviewed attendees. Such a contrast to the MAGA faithful, listening to their hopes for America, rather than the dystopian image of the US I’d heard the week before. 

My blog before this WI road trip – before the attempted assassination, before a president withdrew from the race – speculated that the election was Trump’s to lose. He’s been trying hard to do so since the convention. Calling Harris a “bum”. Narrowing the ticket with his VP appointment. Becoming angrier and lashing out. Demanding his money back and acknowledging having to “start all over again.” 

The fault that the media and Democrats made in 2016 was taking Trump figuratively, not literally. His voters took him literally. Now anti-Trumpers are being asked to take him figuratively; he doesn’t really mean to rule as a “dictator”, that there will be a “blood bath” if he loses, and “you won’t have to vote anymore” if he wins. Once bitten, twice shy.

As I drove across Wisconsin, I listened to the right wing media trash Harris as a candidate and spout forth conspiracy theories about Biden’s withdrawal and her anointment. They’re tagging her with the border failure and socialist policies. It’s vicious stuff but, then again, the liberal media does it to Trump, but with humour.

The race is now close to a tie, but it will be a hard race for Harris. Democrats too easily opt for identity politics rather than talking about the real issues facing Americans. As a liberal black woman, she’ll garner more votes in CA, IL and NY where she doesn’t need them, but she’ll lose white men in the swing states of PA, MI and WI. Harris will also have to navigate her relationship with Biden. Humphrey struggled to separate himself from LBJ’s Vietnam War policy and, when he did, time was too short. Al Gore similarly blew hot and cold in linking his campaign to a damaged Bill Clinton. Both lost.

On the plus side, she’s attracted millions in campaign contributions, thousands of volunteers,  and galvanised young and minority group voters in these states, so their turnout might be enough to offset lost white male votes. Plus, she’ll campaign hard on abortion, a topic Biden avoided. 

The regicide of Biden and rapid anointment of Harris has equalised the attempted assassination of Trump. Harris has greater opportunities to widen her base than does Trump. Look for a white man from a swing state to be her VP candidate. Chicago will be a love-fest, irrespective of the Gaza demonstrators. The imperative to beat Donald Trump trumps all.

These two weeks in Wisconsin turned the election on its head. Still, it will be down to a handful of voters in a small number of counties in a few swing states to decide the election.

Don’t expect a debate, unless Trump is on the ropes. Prosecutor v Felon is not good optics.

I’ll be in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in October and through the election to observe both campaigns. I’ll have plenty of material to complete The Country I Left Behind.